Week 27 WTI Crude Oil Data 22/06/2020
Inventories And Rig Count
U.S. Baker Huges Rig count 265, ( Oil rig count 188)
Canada Rig Count 13
International Rig count 805
A.P.I Report +1.749M
Crude Inventories +1.422M
Above is all the relevant info about last weeks stockpiles and rig count.
Day Trading Analysis
I have created a weekly report below using a three-part strategy I have added a brief explanation after each chart to help you understand what you are looking at.
Check out my website for lessons and a full explanation of each stage.
To view last weeks report and previous reports i have been posting please click here
Triple Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Report
Short term trades
This is the first layer of the three-part strategy I use while day trading its more of a confirmation indicator for me while trading WTI crude oil.
You could trade this method, I see it as a quick in-out riskier trading strategy.
You would want to be in and out multiple times throughout the day.
As you can see from the first picture on the slide show above the trend has been heading down.
So you would be looking to open a short on a confirmation candle, but the stock then heads up instead.
There is a change in the direction just after 9 am you could open a long position and if you kept you stop loss tight, you should have made a profit on that trade.
11 am the market comes back into line and heads back into the downtrend pattern you could profit from a couple of trades here if your open and profit call is close.
EMA & Daily Pivots
Long Term Trades day – multiple days
This chart is zoomed right out to show the position of the pivot lines below.
I am working on putting together a full strategy on trading the daily pivots on there own it will be more of a multi-day trading strategy than a day trading strategy.
The stop loss will need updating on an evening when I issue the daily pivot levels, and that will be all.
Keep an eye out for an update on the website.
If you wanted to trade this on its own, you would check the charts and see if you were looking for a support or resistance day then act accordingly.
You would wait until noon when the market touches the pivot and then bounces.
As the market always does it then drops again, and if you had set your stop loss just below the second line, it would have closed at a loss. Still, if you continued to monitor the market, it gives you the opportunity you where looking for at 2 pm. It goes up over 100 pips which is excellent considering your stop loss could be about ten pips dependant on open.
If you would like to receive the evening email with daily pivots to trade from click here.
Triple EMA, Daily Pivots & Opening range 8 am
Intermediate trading 2 -3 trades a day.
8 am U.K. open plot lines on the opening range the high and low of the 8:00 – 8:05 candle.
Then take a look at what the market is doing?
Is it above the pivots and trending up, so you are looking for support at the pivots.
Or is it trading below and you are looking for resistance when the stock heads up to the pivot.
On the chart above, after the open, it confirms the direction so you would go long and set your stop loss just below the opening low.
The market goes up just over 10 pips then heads back down bounces off the low.
This is where you monitor the market and decided if you get out early or keep with your stop-loss, it’s up to you.
You could open a short position after this close, but you have the pivots just below so the best thing to do would be to wait and trade-off the pivots as above.
Triple EMA, Daily Pivots, & 14:30 U.S Opening range
Last of the pictures is the 14:30 USA opens it is traded the same as the 8 am opening range.
At about 14:40-14:45 o long position should be opened with your stop just below the opening range. The trade almost makes it up to 100 pips, but if you have been trading these charts from the morning, you should have one trade open still already the bounce off the pivot.
The 14:30 open should confirm this even more, and you could open a second position and made some excellent choices today.
WTI Crude Oil Results and Report 23/06/2020
Crude oil Report 23/06/2020
8 am opening time is a great place to open a long position. It’s Above the pivot and shows that overnight trading tried to go down but didn’t achieve it.
If you managed to open a position with a stop loss of 10 pips and followed my trading strategy, you could have achieved about 80 – 100 pips following the wave pattern close.
Doing the pip count is the best way I find to measure your success.
Then you don’t get too wrapped up with prices and how much money you have gained or lost.
At the bottom of the page, is an explanation of how to set your position sizes and work out your risk levels.
Below are charts for the day 23/06/2020 and then I have a brief explanation for each one below that.
Crude oil Charts and report 24/06/2020
WTI Crude oil Summary 24/06/2020
The market opens on triple EMA like it’s going to head up the lines are all starting to trend up.
But if you take a look at the second image, the triple EMA and pivots you will see that the market is above the red pivots and below the yellow.
It gives a mixed indication on the direction it could find support or resistance when heading in either direction today.
The best course of action is to wait mark out the open once it’s complete then make a decision.
I opened a position I have posted details below.
The rest of the day it trended down once it had passed through the pivots it stuck within the rules and respected the pivots
Actual Day Trade
I opened a position here after it had dropped through the red pivot lines It’s still open now 27/06/2020 three days later.
The position size was 200 barrels with a 20 pip stop just above the red pivot.
After a drop of 156 pips which is a great trade I left 100 barrels open, and I am trading the red pivot strategy I am just in the process of writing this out.
The position is at 161 pip gain at the moment I will update next weeks blog with when it closes.
Crude oil data and report 25/06/2020
Looking at the EMA chart it shows the market trending down, so we apply the next layer.
The pivot Lines two red two yellow, this then shows us that the market is trading below the pivots so that another good sign.
Then we apply the 8 am open this again falls into line, so all are looking good today for another shorting day.
You set yourself up to trade open a short, and the market does what the market does and bounces, and if you had set your stop just above the opening range according to the strategy, it would have been a preset known loss.
Just move onto the next setup is all you can do.
Going into the afternoon, it’s heading towards all of the pivot lines so you could predict that the market may reverse at any of these points or could break them and head even higher.
I wouldn’t trade off those charts as there are too many chances for reversals and spikes as seen in the chart.
26/06/2020 WTI Oil Day Trading Results
Looking at the EMA chart on its own it’s trending down again with a spike up just after 8 am.
Looking at the chart with EMA and pivots on.
You can see its trading between the two pivots again so could go either direction. It drops but finds support at the pivot.
I am going to write a strategy about pivot bounces keep an eye on the website for updates.
It bounces around the pivots for a little while the traders decided which direction the market is going to go today.
It finally tries to break through the red pivots doesn’t succeed and heads down until late afternoon.
Day Trading Strategy two Triple EMA & Daily Pivot lines
Below I will explain the second part of the strategy the firs was in last weeks post click here to view my previous posts.
What are pivot lines, and how do we trade them? I hear you asking why do they work and how can I trust them.
Pivot lines are lines that are plotted on to a chart. There are many different variations of pivots available dependant on various indicators.
The idea behind a pivot line is that it will become a level where the price will do one of three things.
- Price Rises towards a pivot level and then drops again this is then classed as a resistance level
- The price Falls to a pivot line then bounces up this is then classed as a support level.
- Then the price crashes through the pivot then that changes the pivot into support from resistance or vice versa.
I create my pivots and use them differently to conventional methods. I will explain below.
Conventionally you plot the lines and use them as a support and resistance levels for the rest of the day treating each one individually.
I use mine to help predict market trends, stop loss guidance and to gauge if I should open a long or short position.
The pivots are a very integral part of my strategy, you could trade each of them on there own if you wanted to, but I find if you use all three of the elements.
It helps with indication and understanding what’s happening within the markets.
The pivots are not just plotted from peaks and troughs, either it’s my recipe and works well.
I emailed them out every night after the market closes and can be used for the following day.
I have two different sets of levels you can see on the charts
- Yellow lines the minor pivot level
- Red main pivot level.
If I am trading just the pivot lines, I will trade very similarly to the EMA trade as described before.
Once there is candle confirmation of support or resistance at one of the pivot lines, you then open a position accordingly.
I set the stop loss a few pips below or above the last candle.
As always I work out the gap from open and the stop before you committing as you don’t want to have a lot of pips to fill.
But as with everything to do with trading, you cannot say 100% this will work as it doesn’t.
So you build a strategy around what happens regularly and set your stop loss accordingly see the rest of the page for setting stop losses and working out risk levels amongst other things.
The proof is in the pudding I have attached some charts of previous results with the pivot lines of the prior trading with the first part of the strategy on as well EMA trading.
Take a look for your self they work and work well if you’re not sure on the results to join my email group and I will email them every night when the markets close.
I Have back records saved as well from before I started building this site I could email them across if required.
Anyway stop blowing my own trumpet and on with the explanation of a pivot line.
I’m going to try and get a few more pages created for the site to have a rig count page with charts and an inventory page done as well.